YouTube Reach Planner: how to build a forecast and read it as a range
Part of YouTube channel planning
The short answer
Reach Planner is Google Ads' planning tool for YouTube and Google video partners. It forecasts reach, frequency, TrueView views and conversions for a budget, dates up to 92 days, location, demographics, audiences and ad mix. Its forecasts are modeled estimates from market trends and similar past campaigns, not guarantees, and its documented settings take no channel list.
Key takeaways
- Reach Planner models a forecast from recent market data for a period as long as the plan, capped at 92 days, so the same plan forecast in different months gives different numbers.
- Budget, audience layers, the Google video partners network, the ad mix and the frequency cap move the estimate more than small edits to dates or devices.
- On-target reach is reach inside the plan's age, gender and location, not total unique users, and it includes visitors to the location.
- The documented plan settings include audiences and YouTube Select lineups but no channel placements, topics or keywords, so a custom channel list is not forecast directly.
- Show a client several dated scenarios and points on the reach curve, not one number from one run.
What is the YouTube Reach Planner?
Definition
- Reach Planner
- A Google Ads tool, under Planning in the Tools menu, for forecasting reach, frequency, TrueView views and conversions of planned video campaigns on YouTube and Google video partners sites and apps.
Google's About Reach Planner page (opens in a new tab) says the tool is built on Google's Unique Reach methodology, is updated weekly, and forecasts estimates that do not guarantee performance or outcomes. Actual results depend on factors such as ad quality, ad relevance and campaign settings, and proposed inventory can change with market conditions. The same page says the tool is not available in every region and that access is expanding to qualified Google Ads accounts, with a Google representative as the contact for access. Its country list includes the United States and Canada (checked October 22, 2026).
Google's forecast page (opens in a new tab) explains the numbers. Forecasts are modeled on ad market trends and the performance of similar past campaigns, using the most recent data from a period as long as the planned dates, up to 92 days. A five day plan spanning a weekend is modeled on the previous five days with a weekend, and auction formats can reflect seasonal costs.
How do you build a reach forecast in Reach Planner?
Building a YouTube media plan, per Google's Reach Planner steps (checked October 22, 2026)
- Open a new plan. Go to Reach Planner under Planning in the Tools menu, select the plus icon, then pick the country or region, the currency and YouTube as the channel.
- Set the dates. Choose a range of 1 to 92 days, matching the flight the client will approve.
- Set demographics. Choose All people or a specific age and gender. Targeting must be 18 or older; the 13 to 17 bracket is not supported.
- Add a sub-location if needed. A state, province, city, TV region or metro region, where the country supports it.
- Add audiences or lineups only if the campaign will use them. Affinity, custom segments, in-market, life events and your data are listed, plus YouTube Select lineups for reservation plans.
- Enter the budget and pick a mix. Efficient reach, Efficient completions, Maximize views, Online conversions, or Create your own to choose formats, pricing and budgets.
- View the forecast, then edit each line. Each format line has its own budget, network, devices, frequency cap and the account's content exclusions and ad policies.
The steps come from Google's Create a YouTube media plan page (opens in a new tab). One best practice on the About page changes how a forecast should be built: Reach Planner assumes each campaign has one ad group and one ad format, and Google advises a separate campaign for each format at launch. If the live campaign is set up differently from the plan, reporting may differ from the forecast.
What inputs change a Reach Planner estimate the most?
| Input | Effect on the forecast | What to record |
|---|---|---|
| Budget | Reach curves flatten as budget rises because spend builds frequency instead of new reach; the TrueView views curve is closer to a straight line | The budget points shown on the curve, not only the chosen one |
| Audience layers | Non-demographic layers, such as affinity or in-market, remove reach percentage and population, leaving absolute reach only | Which layers were on and why the percentage disappeared |
| Google video partners | Included by default on each line; it can be turned off under Networks | Whether the client's plan allows partner inventory |
| Ad mix | Each preset or custom mix changes formats and budget split, and with them reach, frequency and views | The mix name and each line's budget |
| Frequency cap | Forecast average frequency can exceed the cap, because the model counts people across devices while caps apply per signed-in person or device | The cap per line and the forecast average frequency |
| Dates and season | The model uses the most recent period of equal length, and auction costs vary by time of year | The forecast date and the flight dates |
Lineups interact with audiences too. The About page says that adding a lineup and an audience to the same campaign produces a forecast from the overlap between the two, and suggests two separate campaigns in the plan to avoid restricting inventory. The YouTube Select guide covers lineup planning in depth.
What does Reach Planner not account for?
A forecast is bounded by what the tool can be told. The documented plan settings cover location, dates, demographics, parental status, audiences, lineups, networks, devices, frequency caps and content exclusions. They do not include channel placements, topics or keywords. A plan built on a reviewed list of channels therefore cannot be entered as that list: the forecast describes broad YouTube delivery for the same budget and audience, and a narrower list may deliver less or cost more.
Gaps to state next to any Reach Planner forecast
- Custom channel, video, topic and keyword targeting are not among the documented plan settings.
- Creative quality and relevance are not modeled; Google names them as factors that change actual results.
- The forecast assumes the live campaign matches the plan; changes after launch widen the gap with reporting.
- Reach Planner plans commercial reach addressable by ads, so it will not match tools that plan editorial reach.
- Some reservation targeting and exclusion options are not supported in the forecast.
- Customer lists only forecast if at least 10 days old, with a membership lifespan of 30 days or more, and 10,000 to 700,000 users.
The editorial reach point is Google's own: the About page says many industry tools plan editorial reach, which can include inventory that is not monetizable, while Reach Planner plans reach addressable by ads. After launch, Google's reach and frequency measurement page (opens in a new tab) says reported reach can take up to 3 days to appear and covers date ranges of 92 days or less.
How should Reach Planner results be shown to a client?
A single forecast is one run of a model on one day. The honest presentation brackets it with the tool's own variation: points on the reach curve, scenarios with and without the layers the client is still deciding on, and the date each was produced. Reach Planner supports this directly. Its saving and exporting page (opens in a new tab) says a CSV export includes budget points and reach points from the forecast curve, a Google Slides export carries the curves and charts, and saved plans with past dates are kept as an uneditable record of what was originally forecast.
| Slide element | Where it comes from | Wording that keeps it honest |
|---|---|---|
| Reach at the proposed budget | The chosen point on the reach curve | Forecast on-target reach, dated, as an estimate |
| Reach at 25% less and 25% more budget | Neighboring budget points in the CSV export | Shows where extra budget mostly adds frequency |
| Scenario with partners off | A copied plan with Google video partners removed | YouTube only reach for the same budget |
| Scenario with an audience layer | A copied plan with the segment added | Absolute reach, since reach percentage is removed |
| Frequency spread | The 1+ to 10+ on-target reach selector | People reached at least N times, not an average |
| Method note | Forecast date, dates modeled, mix and settings | Modeled estimate, not a guarantee of delivery |
Share plans inside the account rather than pasting screenshots of numbers. Google says plans are private to their creator by default, sharing gives view only access to anyone with access to the account, and in a manager account plans live at the single account level. Refreshing a plan creates a new forecast that must be saved again, so keep the original saved copy as the version the client approved.
What does a Reach Planner forecast look like on one brief?
Fictional example
A regional ice cream maker plans a summer YouTube flight in Wisconsin
An unnamed regional ice cream maker asks its agency for a six week English YouTube flight in the Milwaukee and Madison areas of Wisconsin before the summer season, aimed at adults 25 to 54. The client wants one reach figure for its budget.
The planner builds the plan in US dollars with Wisconsin as the sub-location, adults 25 to 54, and the Efficient reach mix. A copy turns Google video partners off, and a second copy adds a food and dining affinity segment the client is considering. The CSV export gives the reach points at three budget levels for each version.
The client slide shows the three scenarios side by side, each dated, with a note that the agency's list of cooking and family recipe channels cannot be entered into the tool, so delivery on that list may fall below the broad forecast. Each saved copy is kept as the approved record. No delivery or result figures are implied.
How does PlacementGraph project views for a channel plan?
Frequently asked questions
Can Reach Planner forecast Demand Gen campaigns?
Yes, for new ones. Google's forecast page says Reach Planner can forecast impressions, reach and conversion metrics for new Demand Gen campaigns, and that Performance Planner suits existing Demand Gen campaigns because it uses their history. Reach Planner works without signals about the creative, landing page or conversion type.
Why is the forecast frequency higher than the frequency cap I set?
Google says the cap limits how often a signed-in person, or a device or browser for people not signed in, is served an ad, while Reach Planner counts unique people across devices. Someone capped at three on each of a phone, a TV and a computer can see the ad more than three times in total.
Why does a saved Reach Planner plan show new numbers after a refresh?
Refreshing generates a new forecast from the latest data for plans with future dates, and the new numbers are kept only if the plan is saved again. Plans whose dates have passed cannot be edited; they remain a record of what was forecast. Copy a plan before refreshing if the original must be kept.
Can Reach Planner forecast ads for teenagers?
No. Google's media plan steps say Reach Planner does not support targeting minors or the 13 to 17 age bracket, and all age targeting must be 18 or older. To see a plan's overall reach without age targeting, choose All people in the plan's demographic settings.
Sources
- About Reach Planner (opens in a new tab)Google Ads Help
- About forecasts in Reach Planner (opens in a new tab)Google Ads Help
- Create a YouTube media plan in Reach Planner (opens in a new tab)Google Ads Help
- About saving, sharing, and exporting media plans in Reach Planner (opens in a new tab)Google Ads Help
- Measuring reach and frequency (opens in a new tab)Google Ads Help
Researched and written by PlacementGraph Research. Read how we research, source and update these pages. Corrections: diana@placementgraph.com.